Mapping the global risk of chikungunya virus endemicity and autochthonous transmission following importation

作者：Yufeng Yang, Yunbo Qiu, Qiang Xu, Ruoqi Gao, Tian Tang, Yao Tian, Yanhe Wang, Sheng-Hong Lin, Yundong Shi, Long-Tao Chen, Yan Zhang, Jun Ma, Chen‐Long Lv, Guolin Wang, Hai‐Feng Pan, Wei Liu, Li‐Qun Fang · 发表于：Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.tmaid.2025.102892 · 被引用次数：9 · 研究领域：Mosquito-borne diseases and control、Species Distribution and Climate Change、Zoonotic diseases and public health

BACKGROUND: Chikungunya virus, emerging as an increasingly significant global health threat, poses significant uncertainty regarding the global risk of its endemicity and autochthonous transmission following importation. METHODS: In this study, we established a multi-source database spanning 70 years (1953-2023), synthesizing 4515 geolocated records of human, vector, and animal infections alongside clinical metadata. Three machine learning algorithms were utilized to analyze the ecological factors associated with CHIKV occurrences in regions characterized by endemic or autochthonous transmission following importation. Subsequently, the respective risk distributions of CHIKV occurrences were projected and used the SHAP method to rank feature importance and interpret model predictions. RESULTS: Machine learning frameworks that stratifying endemic zones and importation-transmission prone regions have revealed consistent ecological drivers, albeit with significantly discrepant rankings of feature importance. The habitat suitability indices of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, as indicated by the Shapley values analysis, were identified as the most significant contributing factors for endemic occurrence and autochthonous transmission following importation, respectively. Population density, human footprint index, precipitation, thermal conditions, and the habitat suitability indices of other mosquito vectors also play crucial roles in the transmission within the two regions. Nota...