Amazonian and Andean tree communities are not tracking current climate warming

作者：William Farfán-Ríos, Kenneth J. Feeley, Jonathan A. Myers, J. Sebastián Tello, Jhonatan Sallo‐Bravo, Yadvinder Malhi, Oliver L. Phillips, Timothy R. Baker, Alex Nina, Karina García‐Cabrera, S. S. Saatchi, John Terborgh, Nigel C. A. Pitman, Abel Monteagudo Mendoza, Rodolfo Vásquez, Norma Salinas, Leslie Cayola, A C., M. Isabel Loza, Percy Núñez Vargas, Miles R. Silman · 发表于：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1073/pnas.2425619122 · 被引用次数：7 · 研究领域：Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Species Distribution and Climate Change、Plant and animal studies

Climate change is shifting species distributions, leading to changes in community composition and novel species assemblages worldwide. However, the responses of tropical forests to climate change across large-scale environmental gradients remain largely unexplored. Using long-term data over 66,000 trees of more than 2,500 species occurring over 3,500 m elevation along the hyperdiverse Amazon-to-Andes elevational gradients in Peru and Bolivia, we assessed community-level shifts in species composition over a 40+ y time span. We tested the thermophilization hypothesis, which predicts an increase in the relative abundances of species from warmer climates through time. Additionally, we examined the relative contributions of tree mortality, recruitment, and growth to the observed compositional changes. Mean thermophilization rates (TR) across the Amazon-to-Andes gradient were slow relative to regional temperature change. TR were positive and more variable among Andean forest plots compared to Amazonian plots but were highest at midelevations around the cloud base. Across all elevations, TR were driven primarily by tree mortality and decreased growth of highland (cool-adapted) species rather than an influx of lowland species with higher thermal optima. Given the high variability of community-level responses to warming along the elevational gradients, the high tree mortality, and the slower-than-warming rates of compositional change, we conclude that most tropical tree species, and e...