Non-Linear Impacts of Social and Ecological Drivers on Ecosystem Services: A Threshold Perspective

作者：Yan Zhang, Shuhan Liu, Hongtao Liu, Fanjie Kong, Peiheng Yu, Gui Jin, Yiyun Chen · 发表于：Preprints.org · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.20944/preprints202508.1038.v1 · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services

Understanding the mechanisms that drive ecosystem services (ESs) is critical to reversing the trend of ESs deterioration and allocating targeted restoration measures. However, previous studies have not utilized machine learning methods to explore the impacts and thresholds of social-ecological drivers on ESs from a global perspective. Therefore, in this study, we employed a random forest model to identify the dominant drivers of ESs. We then utilized partial dependence analysis to investigate the non-linear impacts and thresholds of these dominant drivers on ESs. The results revealed that elevator, distance from rivers, soil organic carbon content, aggregation index, and Shannon diversity index were the dominant drivers of most ESs. Moreover, three types of non-linear impacts existed in the relationship between ESs and their social and ecological drivers: the majority of drivers exhibited “single threshold” effects on ESs, the minority showed “monotonic change” effects, and the rest had “complex curve” effects in the forms of “S-shape”, “inverted U-shape” and “inverted S-shape” effects, etc. Based on these findings, we proposed policy guidance to inform ecological protection and restoration aimed at enhancing ESs provision and promoting sustainable development.