A global prediction of cardiovascular disease from 2020 to 2030

作者：Huiqun Yang, Qinghua Ma, Liyuan Han, Huina Liu · 发表于：Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3389/fcvm.2025.1462705 · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors、Health Promotion and Cardiovascular Prevention、Heart rate and cardiovascular health

Background: The study aimed to forecast the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) across all age groups worldwide from 2020 to 2030. Methods: Data spanning from 1990 to 2019 across diverse global populations were extracted from the GBD 2019 study data. Generalized Additive Models (GAM) were utilized to predict the disease burden for the period between 2020 and 2030. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was employed to measure the temporal trends. Results: The EAPC for age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) is projected to be 0.11 from 2020 to 2030, while for age-standardized death rate (ASDR) it is expected to be -1.11, and for age-standardized DALY rate it is estimated to be -1.04. By 2030, males are predicted to experience a higher burden compared to females, with higher ASIR (5,092.65 vs. 3,553.02) and ASDR (245.92 vs. 184.33), as well as a higher age-standardized DALY rate (734.72 vs. 653.71). Oceania is anticipated to have the highest age-standardized DALY rate at 9,556.79. Central Asia stands out among the regions with the highest ASIR (437.48) and ASDR (1,093.93). Lower Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions are projected to bear a greater burden of CVD by 2030, indicating an inverse relationship between SDI and CVD burden. Cabo Verde leads with the highest EAPC for DALYs and deaths at 4.08 (95% CI: 3.93, 4.23) and 4.82 (95% CI: 4.61, 5.04), respectively. The highest EAPC for incidence is observe...