Transportation in net-zero emissions futures: Insights from the EMF-37 model intercomparison study

作者：Christopher Hoehne, Matteo Muratori, John Bistline, Carol S. Lenox, David McCollum, Morgan Browning, Kara Podkaminer, Robert Beach, Robbie Orvis, Shiqi Ou, Page Kyle, Sharyn Lie, Megan Mahajan, Haewon McJeon, Catherine Ledna, Marc Melaina, Yongxia Cai, Christopher Ramig, Aniss Bahreinian, Nadejda Victor, Olivier Bahn, Kathleen Vaillancourt, Emma Starke, Allen A. Fawcett, James McFarland, Geoffrey J. Blanford, Trieu Mai, John P. Weyant · 发表于：Energy and Climate Change · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100211 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Vehicle emissions and performance、Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies、Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure

emissions by 2050. We find the U.S. transport sector is poised to play the most significant role in reducing demand-side emissions, mostly driven by technology substitution, as modeling results suggest a limited role for mode shifting and for reduced use of personal car travel. Among various technology solutions, models show agreement that passenger on-road vehicles will largely transition to electric vehicles (EVs), while solutions to decarbonize heavier travel modes are more diverse and include greater use of liquid biofuels and hydrogen. Research should continue to investigate the evolution of on-road electrification, the role of biofuels and hydrogen across heavier travel modes, and the role of mode shift and travel behavior change to support personal transportation decarbonization at national and regional scales to temper the rapid growth in clean fuel and electricity demand.