Spatiotemporal patterns of methane fluxes across alpine permafrost region on the Tibetan Plateau

作者：Luyao Huang, Shuqi Qin, Dan Kou, Philippe Ciais, Xiaofeng Xu, Josep Peñuelas, Yi Xi, Guibiao Yang, Yutong Song, Shiting Yao, Jinfeng Chang, Yuanhe Yang · 发表于：Nature Communications · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1038/s41467-025-62699-6 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Climate change and permafrost、Cryospheric studies and observations、Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics

Methane (CH4) emissions from thawing permafrost could amplify climate warming. However, long-term trajectory of net CH4 balance in permafrost regions, particularly high-altitude permafrost regions, remains unknown. Based on literature synthesis and CLM5.0 model, we evaluate the contemporary and future CH4 fluxes across the Tibetan alpine permafrost region from 1989−2100. Here, we find that this permafrost region functions as a marginal CH4 sink during 1989-2018 (−0.01 ± 0.01 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹), and future trajectories diverge, with warming and wetting under low- and medium-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6/SSP2-4.5) driving persistent CH4 emissions (0.07 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹). By contrast, under higher emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0/SSP5-8.5), the region shifts to net emissions by mid-century but enhanced atmospheric CH4 concentrations strengthen sink, returning it to a net sink by century’s end (−0.06 ~ −0.02 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹). These results demonstrate that climate change and atmospheric CH4 dynamics jointly mediate the trajectory of alpine permafrost CH4 balance. The authors reveal that the Tibetan alpine permafrost region currently functions as a marginal CH4 sink, and that future flux trajectories diverge under different emission scenarios as a result of the coupled effects of climate forcing and atmospheric CH4 dynamics.