A study on ecological risk identification based on ecosystem service supply and demand in Xinjiang

作者：Xuemei Wei, Abudukeyimu Abulizi, Le Yuan, Junxia Wang, Shaojie Bai, Shanshan Tang, Amanzhuli Yerkenhazi · 发表于：Scientific Reports · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1038/s41598-025-13026-y · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management、Urban Green Space and Health

Due to the rapid urbanization and global climate change, arid and semi-arid regions are becoming more vulnerable to the growing disparity between the supply and demand of ecosystem services. Conventional ecological risk assessments have predominantly emphasized landscape pattern analysis, often overlooking considerations related to human well-being. This study focuses on the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and examines four key ecosystem services: water yield (WY), soil retention (SR), carbon sequestration (CS), and food production (FP). Using the InVEST model, geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis, and statistical methods, we quantify the supply-demand dynamics of these ecosystem services and identify the risk classification of ecosystem service supply-demand (ESSD) using the Self-Organizing Feature Map (SOFM) method. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the supply and demand of WY in XUAR increased from 6.02 × 1010 m3 and 8.6 × 1010 m3 to 6.17 × 1010 m3 and 9.17 × 1010 m3, respectively; SR supply and demand decreased from 3.64 × 109 t and 1.15 × 109 t to 3.38 × 109 t and 1.05 × 109 t, respectively; CS supply and demand rose from 0.44 × 108 t and 0.56 × 108 t to 0.71 × 108 t and 4.38 × 108 t, respectively; and FP supply and demand increased from 9.32 × 107 t and 0.69 × 107 t to 19.8 × 107 t and 0.97 × 107 t, respectively. A clear spatial differentiation in ESSD was observed, with higher supply areas mainly located along river valleys and water...