World Cultural Heritage sites are under climate stress and no emissions mitigation pathways can uniformly protect them

作者：Zihua Chen, Qian Gao, Yajing Wu, Jiaxin Li, Xiaowei Li, Xiao Li, Zhenbo Wang, Cui Haiyang · 发表于：Communications Earth & Environment · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1038/s43247-025-02603-8 · 被引用次数：11 · 研究领域：Conservation Techniques and Studies、Building materials and conservation、Archaeological Research and Protection

Climate change increasingly threatens cultural heritage, yet global studies remain limited. Here we use an analytical hazard–vulnerability–exposure framework, combining global climate reanalysis and multi-model projections with site-level material inventories, to track climate stress on United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization World Heritage sites in the past (1961–1990), present (2010–2040) and future (2070–2100). We find that 80% of sites already experience harmful heat and moisture disturbance, and nearly 19% are threatened on more than one key material such as stone and wood. A low-emission future (SSP1-2.6) could spare about 40% of at-risk sites, whereas a medium-emission (SSP2-4.5) future offers far less relief. Regional and material disparities persist, highlighting that no single mitigation pathway can uniformly protect all sites. The results guide resource prioritization and locally tailored protection strategies. Approximately eighty percent of World Cultural Heritage sites already experience heat and moisture disturbances, and nearly nineteen percent of sites have stone or wood materials affected by the changing climate, according to an analysis that utilizes climate data and material inventories