Expansion of thermokarst lakes along the Mo’he county section of National Highway G111 in Northeast China during 1989–2020

作者：Jun-He Liang, Shuai Huang, Xiaoying Jin, Lin Yang, Wenhui Wang, Jianjun Tang, Ze Zhang, SanZhong LI, Xianglong Li, Jin-Bang Zhai, Xue Yang, Anyuan Li, Lanzhi Lü, Ruixia He, Xiaoying Li, Raul‐David Șerban, Huijun Jin · 发表于：Advances in Climate Change Research · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.007 · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Climate change and permafrost、Cryospheric studies and observations、Landslides and related hazards

Thermokarst lake dynamics crucially affect permafrost degradation, greenhouse gas emissions, hydrological and geomorphic processes and ecological responses in cold-region environments. However, the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of thermokarst lakes in mid-to high-latitude regions characterised by discontinuous, sporadic and isolated patches of permafrost, such as Northeast China, remain insufficiently investigated, particularly in the context of their long-term interactions with climatic and anthropogenic factors. This study integrates machine learning techniques with Landsat imagery to investigate changes in the number and area of thermokarst lakes along the Mo’he County section of National Highway G111 in the northern Da Xing’anling Mountains from 1989 to 2020. Results indicate a 243.7% increase in the number of lakes larger than 0.1 hm 2 (from 355 to 865) and a 345.3% expansion in total lake area (from 233.6 to 806.6 hm 2 ), with the most significant changes occurring in riverine and anthropogenically disturbed areas. Lake expansion is significantly correlated with land use indicators and climatic factors, including cropland area ( r = 0.96), built-up area ( r = 0.97), and potential evapotranspiration ( r = 0.94). These findings suggest that anthropogenic disturbances, such as road construction and land use change, have intensified permafrost thaw by increasing ground heat flux and altering surface hydrology. Moreover, the interplay between climate warmin...