Global trends and future predictions of gastrointestinal ulcers in youth

作者：Kun He, Shicai Ye, Yanqi Kou, Shunda Du, Weinan Yuan, Ge Lei, Yuan Tian, Botao Luo, Yanping Ha, Liping Zhan, Ruyin Ye, Yujie Huang, Bingbing Li, Biao Nie, Yuping Yang · 发表于：Frontiers in Public Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3389/fpubh.2025.1511050 · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Helicobacter pylori-related gastroenterology studies、Inflammatory Bowel Disease、Diagnosis and Treatment of Venous Diseases

Background: By analyzing past disease trends and comparing two time series statistical models, we can predict the global burden of gastrointestinal ulcers in specific populations of adolescents and young adults aged 10-24. This prediction can provide important references for optimizing prevention and control strategies in healthcare systems. Methods: We collected data on prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality for specific age groups between 10 and 24 years from 1990 to 2019. The data were then stratified by age, gender, and economic development level. We applied decomposition analysis and frontier analysis, and compared the performance of two statistical prediction models. We used the best-performing model to predict changes in each indicator. Results: In 2019, there were 958,842 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 639,698-1,371,106) prevalent cases, 407,850 (95% UI: 260,513-577,751) incident cases, 363,862 (95% UI: 309,793-422,230) DALY cases, and 4,404 (95% UI: 3,826-5,042) deaths globally, all showing an increasing trend compared to 1990. However, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR), and age-standardized death rate (ASDER) all decreased from 1990 to 2019, with reductions of 6.6, 3.8, 50.86, and 53.8%, respectively. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) for these metrics was -0.59 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.73 to -0.46), -0.41 (95% CI: -0.51 to...