Global estimates of groundwater withdrawal trends and uncertainties

作者：Sara Nazari, Robert Reinecke, Nils Moosdorf · 发表于：Environmental Research Letters · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1088/1748-9326/adf6ca · 被引用次数：13 · 研究领域：Geophysics and Gravity Measurements、Groundwater and Isotope Geochemistry、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Abstract Groundwater, Earth’s largest source of liquid freshwater, is essential for sustaining ecosystems and meeting societal demands. However, quantifying global groundwater withdrawals remains a significant challenge due to inherent uncertainties in input data, sectoral allocation assumptions, and model parameterization. In this study, we analyze global groundwater withdrawals from 2001 to 2020 using a newly developed data-driven Global Groundwater Withdrawal (GGW) model and quantify uncertainties through Monte Carlo simulations. The GGW model integrates reported country-level data with global grid-based datasets to estimate annual withdrawals across domestic, industrial, and agricultural sectors at a 0.1° resolution (≈10 km). Our results indicate an average global groundwater withdrawal of 648 km 3 a −1 , with an uncertainty range of 465–881 km 3 a −1 . Agriculture accounts for 50% of total withdrawals, followed by domestic use at 34.5% and industrial use at 15.5%. Temporal analysis shows increasing groundwater withdrawal in 66% of the 44 IPCC WGI reference regions over the 20 years, with a global average annual increase of 0.5% (varying regionally from 6.5% annual increase to 9% annual decrease). Comparison with previous studies highlights the impact of methodological choices and assumptions about groundwater withdrawal on the resulting global estimates. Our findings underscore the need for comprehensive uncertainty assessments and improved datasets. Expanding spatial co...