Global, regional, and national time trends in falls and their predictions: an age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

作者：Huan Jiang, Ning Sun, Huiqi Yang, Ye Li, Lihong Jiang, Huicui Zhao, Yi Zeng, Changyu Sun, Chun Xu, Yongqiang Lai, Jia Meng · 发表于：Frontiers in Public Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3389/fpubh.2025.1598507 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Balance, Gait, and Falls Prevention、Chronic Disease Management Strategies、Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

Background: Falls are a global public health issue with a heavy disease and socioeconomic burden, with an increasing number of risky people. The aim of this study is to explore the global disease burden of falls and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and management of falls. Methods: This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) to analyse global, regional, and national temporal trends in falls. An age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to analyse data from 1990 to 2021, with global predictions made through 2046. Findings: Although the falls mortality of all age groups has shown a slight decline globally over the past three decades (Net drift = 0.84%, 95% CI: -0.92, -0.76), the mortality varying across regional and intra-regional levels by sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles, gender and older adults have not substantially decreased (local drift above 75 years: >0). The APC model reveals that falls mortality has increased with age, especially after the age of 55 years. The period effects shows an overall downward trend (Rate Ratio: 1.08-0.87). The cohort effect shows a trend of increasing first (RR: 1.02-1.18) and then decreasing (RR: 1.18-0.40). The marked heterogeneity in falls mortality is across higher-SDI regions. Population aging is identified as the primary contributor to changes in global falls mortality rates. Conclusion: Falls among older adults remain a persistent global issue, with significant regional and intra-re...