Excess mortality and hospitalisations associated with respiratory syncytial virus, influenza, and COVID-19 among adults in Denmark (2015–2024): a modelling study

作者：Amanda Marie Egeskov-Cavling, C. Hansen, Caroline Klint Johannesen, Birgitte Lindegaard, Samir Bhatt, Cécile Viboud, Thea Kølsen Fischer · 发表于：The Lancet Regional Health - Europe · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.lanepe.2025.101396 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Respiratory viral infections research、Influenza Virus Research Studies、COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies

Background: Understanding the long-term epidemiology trends of RSV, influenza, and COVID-19 is essential for planning of vaccination strategies and healthcare system epidemic preparedness. This is the first study to provide a comprehensive estimation of both excess mortality and hospitalisations among adults for these respiratory viruses in a European setting. We aim to estimate excess mortality and excess hospitalisations for RSV, influenza, and COVID-19 among adults ≥18 years in Denmark from January 2015 to March 2024. Methods: This nationwide time-trend modelling study investigates weekly mortality and hospitalisation rates surpassing the seasonal baseline for RSV, influenza, and COVID-19 among adults in Denmark. Data from the Cause of Death Register, the Danish National Patient Registry, and respiratory virus surveillance data were analysed with Generalized Additive Models (GAM) using a negative binomial likelihood function, including RSV, influenza, COVID-19 variants, and time effects to account for seasonality and trend. Findings: We estimated 3944 RSV-attributed, 5675 influenza-attributed, and 5636 COVID-19-attributed deaths. Among adults aged 65 or older, the annual mortality rates were 31.2 per 100,000 for RSV, 42.9 for influenza, and 88.5 for COVID-19. Furthermore, we estimated annual admission rates for those aged 65 and older of 177.4 per 100,000 for RSV, 164.6 for influenza, and 398.7 for COVID-19. Interpretation: This modelling study reveals a substantial impact...