Impact Webs: a novel conceptual modelling approach for characterising and assessing complex risks

作者：Edward Sparkes, Davide Cotti, Angel Valdiviezo Ajila, S.E. Werners, Michael Hagenlocher · 发表于：Hydrology and earth system sciences · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.5194/hess-29-3297-2025 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Complex Systems and Decision Making、Cognitive Science and Mapping、Innovation, Sustainability, Human-Machine Systems

Abstract. Identifying, characterising, and assessing the complex nature of risks are vital to realise the expected outcome of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Over the past two decades, the conceptualisation of risk has evolved from a hazard-centric perspective to one that integrates dynamic interactions between hazards, exposure, system vulnerabilities, and responses. This calls for a need to develop tools and methodologies that can account for such complexity in risk assessments. However, existing risk assessment approaches are hitting limits to tackle such complexity. To this end, we developed a novel complex-risk assessment methodology named Impact Webs, inspired by a conceptual risk modelling approach named Climate Impact Chains that integrates aspects of various other conceptual models used in risk assessments, such as causal loop diagrams and fuzzy cognitive mapping. Impact Webs are developed in a participatory manner with stakeholders and characterise and map interconnections between risks, their underlying hazards, risk drivers, root causes, and responses to risks, as well as direct and cascading impacts across multiple systems and at various scales. In this methodological paper, we show how we developed the Impact Web methodology, including how we derived which elements to include in the model, demonstrating the logic and visual output and listing the steps we followed for construction. As proof of concept, we present the results of a complex-risk a...