Assessing the global burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis using multiple statistical models: analysis and future projections

作者：Luna Zhao, Yue Zhou, Jia Yun, Lang Wang, Ye Liu, Ganyun Lv, Yihao Zhang, Jinyang Li, Ren Junfeng, Hongzheng Liu, Yufeng Zhang, Ning Wang, Wenwen Zhang, Wei‐Jia Mo, Jiaqi Liu, Yilin Wang, Junhao Ma, Chao‐Liang Wu, Dong Liu, GBD Collaborator · 发表于：BMC Pulmonary Medicine · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1186/s12890-025-03813-8 · 被引用次数：7 · 研究领域：Interstitial Lung Diseases and Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis、Sarcoidosis and Beryllium Toxicity Research、Inflammatory Myopathies and Dermatomyositis

BACKGROUND: Interstitial lung disease (ILD) and pulmonary sarcoidosis (PS) constitute major global health challenges, characterized by progressive respiratory symptoms and diverse epidemiological trends. Although the incidence and mortality rates of ILD and PS have increased following the COVID-19 pandemic, comprehensive research examining their burden and associated risk factors remains limited. Therefore, the present study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution, gender-specific and age-related disparities, and sociodemographic determinants of ILD and PS from 1990 to 2021 to facilitate evidence-based targeted interventions. METHODS: By using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database, we analyzed age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) across 204 countries/regions. Temporal trends were evaluated using average annual percentage change (AAPC), age-period-cohort (APC), and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models. Decomposition analysis and Pearson's correlation analysis were conducted to assess the impact of aging, population growth, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Joinpoint regression was used to identify inflection points in trends. Future disease burdens (2021-2050) were projected through BAPC modeling. RESULTS: Global ILD and PS cases increased from 157,441.17 in 1990 to 390,267.11 in 2021, with an annual increase in ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR by 0.61%, 1.32%, and 0.83%...