Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) mathematical models and disease parameters: a systematic review

作者：Christian Morgenstern, Christian Morgenstern, Thomas Rawson, Isobel Routledge, Mara D. Kont, Natsuko Imai, Janetta Skarp, Patrick Doohan, Kelly McCain, Rob Johnson, H. Juliette T. Unwin, Tristan Naidoo, Dominic P Dee, Kanchan Parchani, Bethan Cracknell Daniels, Anna Vicco, Kieran O. Drake, Paula Christen, Richard Sheppard, Sequoia I. Leuba, Joseph T. Hicks, Ruth McCabe, Rebecca K. Nash, Cosmo N Santoni, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Sabine van Elsland, Sangeeta Bhatia, Anne Cori, Aaron Morris, Alpha Forna, Amy Dighe, Anna Vicco, Anna-Maria Hartner, Anne Cori, Arran Hamlet, Ben Lambert, Bethan Cracknell Daniels, Charlie Whittaker, Christian Morgenstern, Christian Morgenstern, Cosmo Santoni, Cyril Geismar, Dariya Nikitin, David Jorgensen, Dominic Dee, Ed Knock, Ettie Unwin, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Hayley Thompson, Ilaria Dorigatti, Isobel Routledge, Jack Wardle, Janetta Skarp, Joseph Hicks, Kanchan Parchani, Keith Fraser, Kelly Charniga, Kelly McCain, Kieran Drake, Lily Geidelberg, Lorenzo Cattarino, Mantra Kusumgar, Mara Kont, Marc Baguelin, Natsuko Imai-Eaton, Pablo Perez Guzman, Patrick Doohan, Paul Lietar, Paula Christen, Rebecca Nash, Rich Fitzjohn, Richard Sheppard, Rob Johnson, Ruth McCabe, Sabine van Elsland, Sangeeta Bhatia, Sequoia Leuba, Shazia Ruybal-Pesantez, Sreejith Radhakrishnan, Thomas Rawson, Tristan Naidoo, Zulma Cucunuba Perez · 发表于：The Lancet Microbe · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.lanmic.2025.101144 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：COVID-19 epidemiological studies、SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research、COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies

SARS-CoV-1 was the first documented coronavirus to cause an acute epidemic in humans and remains a priority pathogen owing to the risk of re-emergence. Robust estimates of key epidemiological parameters are essential to guide outbreak responses and inform mathematical models. Existing systematic reviews have been limited in scope, warranting a comprehensive and up-to-date review. We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) transmission models and parameters characterising the transmission, evolution, natural history, severity, risk factors, and seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-1. Information was extracted using a custom database and quality assessment tool. We extracted data on 519 parameters, 243 risk factors, and 112 models from 289 papers. We found that SARS is characterised by high lethality (case-fatality ratio, 10·9%), transmissibility (R 0 range, 1·1–4·59), and superspreading events (approximately 91% of SARS-CoV-1 infections can be attributed to 20% of individuals who were most infectious). Infection risk was the highest among health-care workers and close contacts of infected individuals. Severe disease and death were associated with age and existing comorbidities. The natural history of SARS was poorly characterised, except for the incubation and mean onset-to-hospitalisation delays. The extracted data were compiled into our associated R package, epireview, which can be updated to incorporate novel find...