Strategies for mitigating winter wheat yield reduction in the Yellow River basin: Simulations and insights from CMIP6 data and the improved DSSAT-CERES-wheat model

作者：Yingnan Wei, Ziya Zhang, Miaolei Hou, La Zhuo, Ning Yao, Linchao Li, Jiangfeng Xiangli, Tehseen Javed, Jianqiang He, Qiang Yu · 发表于：Agricultural Water Management · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109678 · 被引用次数：6 · 研究领域：Environmental and Agricultural Sciences、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Climate change impacts on agriculture

Winter wheat is a vital staple crop in northern China, and climate change is expected to increase the frequency of droughts, leading to reduced yields. Therefore, it is crucial to study the impact of climate change on winter wheat yield and develop strategies to mitigate these effects. This study used CMIP6 data and an improved DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model to simulate winter wheat's phenological stages, yield, and water stress factors in the Middle and upper reaches of Yellow River basin from 2022 to 2050 and proposed measures to counteract yield reduction. The results revealed that optimal sowing dates and irrigation strategies remained stable under both the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2–4.5 (SSP2–4.5) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5) scenarios across the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin. Early sowing combined with targeted irrigation during the jointing and grain-filling stages enhanced winter wheat yields but led to delayed phenological development. Moreover, variations in water productivity (WPc) and yield exhibited consistent spatial patterns across the three subregions of the study area. In region 1, the optimal sowing date is 10 days earlier, with a sowing window of 7–13 days earlier. During normal and dry years, irrigation requirements at the jointing and filling stages are 70 mm and 90 mm, respectively. In regions 2 and 3, the optimal sowing date is 15 days earlier, with a sowing window of 12–18 days earlier. Under the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5...