A water-carbon-economic model coupling system dynamics and InVEST for Wuhan’s sustainability assessment

作者：Yixuan Diao, Jun Xia, Qianjin Dong, Qiting Zuo, Mengyun Xie, Xiaofeng Peng, Long Jiang · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113893 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Water resources management and optimization、Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies

• Coupled SD-InVEST model quantifies accurately Wuhan’s 2011–2020 sustainability trade-off. • 6.8 × 10 5 t carbon loss (1%) driven predominantly by cropland-built-up conversion in Wuhan. • Low-carbon strategy raises coordination 23% vs. traditional urbanization. Understanding the interactions between water security, carbon storage, and economic and social development (WCE) is critical for achieving sustainable urbanization. This study establishes a coupled WCE system model for Wuhan, China, by integrating System Dynamics (SD) and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to quantify dynamic socioeconomic processes and spatial ecological patterns. A mechanical model was further employed to quantify system coordination and assess urban sustainability. Future scenarios were simulated to identify optimal development pathways. The results showed: (1) During the historical period (2000–2020), green economic and social development enhanced resource utilization efficiency (+289%) but reduced ecological security levels (−41%). (2) WCE system coordination improved (0.45 → 0.68), while the primary constraint shifted from water scarcity to carbon storage deficit. (3) Future scenario simulations (2021–2030) indicate declining coordination under baseline scenario, whereas the low-carbon green strategy achieves optimal coordination (>0.8), significantly outperforming ecological protection and high-intensity urbanization strategies. This work provides the fi...