Large connected components in sexual networks and their role in HIV transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa: A model-based analysis of HPTN 071(PopART) data

作者：Francesco Di Lauro, William J. M. Probert, Michael Pickles, Anne Cori, Robert Hinch, Luca Ferretti, Jasmina Panovska‐Griffiths, Lucie Abeler‐Dörner, Rory Dunbar, Peter Bock, Deborah Donnell, Helen Ayles, Sarah Fidler, Richard Hayes, Christophe Fraser · 发表于：Journal of Theoretical Biology · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.jtbi.2025.112218 · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health、COVID-19 epidemiological studies、HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses

The HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa is historically characterised by high levels of prevalence and incidence. With the global effort to reach UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets, the scaling-up of HIV treatment, and focused preventive interventions, incidence has been declining over the past decade, albeit non-consistently across different sex and age groups. Two questions remain to be addressed to help tailor setting-specific interventions and allocate resources optimally. Firstly, are there unidentified demographic groups that are sources of transmission? Secondly, what are the patterns of decline in incidence across different groups? Model-based assessment is a valuable tool for the design of focused interventions and to answer these questions. PopART-IBM, an individual-based model calibrated to (anonymised) age-and-sex stratified data, was developed in the context of the HPTN-071 (PopART) trial, and it offers a unique opportunity to explore such questions in the context of high-burden HIV communities in Zambia and South Africa. The outputs of the model include the full HIV transmission and partnership networks. In this work, we explore these and show that the sexual partnership network exhibits a large connected component, usually comprising over 40 % of the population, in each of the studied communities. An analysis of the large connected component reveals that it is formed by young people (20-40 years old) and is centered around the most sexually active individuals of the commun...