Global burden of oral disorders with projections over the next 30 years

作者：Lingjun Yan, Bingqin Xie, Yanfen Li, Haohuan Li, Yu Huang, Baochang He, Yu Qiu, Lan Luo, Fuhua Yan, Fa Chen · 发表于：Journal of Periodontology · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1002/jper.24-0638 · 被引用次数：14 · 研究领域：Dental Health and Care Utilization、Oral microbiology and periodontitis research、Dental Radiography and Imaging

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to provide an updated assessment of the global, regional, and national burden of oral disorders from 1990 to 2021, and forecast trends for the next 30 years. METHODS: Data on incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases(GBD) 2021. The changing trends in the burden of oral disorders and subtypes were estimated using percentage change. The Nordpred model based on the age-period-cohort analysis was used to predict the burden of oral disorders over the next 30 years. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, all oral disorders exhibited a 35.54% incidence, reaching 3.74 billion cases. Regional analysis revealed that Tropical Latin America and Southeast Asia had higher age-standardized incidence rates(ASIR). Dental caries in permanent teeth increased by 6.0% in the ASIR, while deciduous teeth caries declined by 7.83%. Periodontal disease incidence surged by 76.32% to 89.6 million cases, with discrepancies between sexes-1.05% decrease in males and a 1.14% increase in females. Edentulism incidence rose dramatically by 93.56%, totaling 26.5 million cases. Projections for the next 30 years suggest a continued rise in oral disorder cases, with the ASIR expected to rise, particularly in periodontal diseases. CONCLUSIONS: The rising global burden of oral disorders, notably periodontal diseases, remains a significant public health challenge. Factors such as poor oral hygiene and disparities in healthcare...