Trends and projections of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in China: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

作者：Zhouwei Zhan, Bijuan Chen, Wenhao Teng, Rui Huang, Hanchen Zheng, Sijing Zhou, Jingjie Xu, Jiami Yu, Hui Lin, Xiaojie Wang, Zengqing Guo, Xiaoyan Lin · 发表于：BMC Public Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1186/s12889-025-23601-7 · 被引用次数：7 · 研究领域：Cholangiocarcinoma and Gallbladder Cancer Studies、Gallbladder and Bile Duct Disorders、Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treatment and Prognosis

BACKGROUND: Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) poses a growing public health challenge in China, with considerable disparities across age and sex. Understanding long-term epidemiological patterns is essential for informing cancer control strategies and future projections. METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 were used to assess GBTC burden in China from 1990 to 2021. Indicators analyzed included incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs). Joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort (APC) analysis, decomposition analysis, and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models were employed to explore temporal trends and project future burden through 2030. RESULTS: In 2021, China reported 51,720 new GBTC cases, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 2.49 per 100,000. Males exhibited higher burden than females across all indicators. Incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs were highest in older age groups. From 1990 to 2021, China experienced increasing trends in incidence and prevalence, while age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) declined. Compared to global trends, China's ASIR rose while global rates declined. DALYs decreased in both contexts but more steeply globally. Joinpoint regression revealed sex-specific shifts, with males showing consistent increases in incidence and females experiencing periods of both decline and rise. APC analysis highlighted increas...