Future Scenarios of Global Fisheries and Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement Under Socio‐Economic and Climate Pathways

作者：Hans Sloterdijk, Caroline Grünhagen, R. Voss, Patricia Grasse, David P. Keller, Linda Kleemann, Lotta Clara Kluger, Kira Lancker, Wilfried Rickels, Ulf Riebesell, Renato Salvatteci, Andreas Oschlies, Jörn Schmidt, Natascha Oppelt, Katrin Rehdanz, Marie‐Catherine Riekhof · 发表于：Earth s Future · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1029/2024ef005478 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses、Coastal and Marine Management、Marine and fisheries research

Abstract Achieving global climate goals while ensuring food security in a changing climate presents significant challenges, particularly when relying solely on land‐based solutions. Covering over 70% of the Earth's surface, the ocean remains an underutilized resource for climate mitigation. Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is one such strategy, designed to strengthen the ocean's natural carbon sink, reduce atmospheric CO 2 , and mitigate ocean acidification. However, its implications for fisheries, critical for food security and livelihoods, remain uncertain. This study examines the interplay between global fisheries, OAE, and different future socioeconomic and climatic conditions, using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways framework. We explore how global fisheries and OAE could evolve under three combined scenarios: SSP1‐2.6 (sustainability‐focused), SSP3‐7.0 (regional rivalry), and SSP5‐8.5 (high fossil fuel dependency). By integrating ecological, economic, societal, and technological perspectives, we develop scenario narratives and quantify key bio‐economic parameters, including technological progress, fishing costs, fisheries management, marine aquaculture, and ecosystem carrying capacity. High‐emission (SSP5‐8.5) and fragmented development (SSP3‐7.0) scenarios present significant barriers to the coexistence of OAE and fisheries, whereas sustainability‐focused pathways (SSP1‐2.6) offer the most favorable conditions for thei...