Impact of climate change and extreme temperature on the incidence of infectious disease among children and adolescents in China: A nationwide case-crossover study with over 8.7 million cases between 2008 and 2019

作者：Li Chen, Duanke Liu, Yuchen Guo, Brian Wen, Yao Wu, Yi Xing, Yi Zhang, Xinli Song, RuoLin Wang, Jianuo Jiang, Yang Qin, Jun Ma, Mengjie Geng, Yanhui Dong, Yi Song, D Prieto Alhambra, Junqing Xie · 发表于：Journal of Infection · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.jinf.2025.106547 · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Climate Change and Health Impacts、Respiratory viral infections research、Climate Change Communication and Perception

BACKGROUND: The relationship between ambient temperature and infectious disease incidence lacks comprehensive documentation. Our study, therefore, sought to systematically determine the national association between temperature and the incidence of infectious diseases, categorized into respiratory, gastrointestinal and enterovirus, and vector-borne categories. We aimed to study the association between extreme cold and heat extreme temperature on infectious disease occurrence among children and teenagers, and to evaluate the secular trends in these diseases in relation to temperature extremes. METHODS: We accessed the dataset encompassing 8,731,930 cases of 27 distinct infectious diseases, spanning respiratory, gastrointestinal and enterovirus infections, and vector-borne categories, across 507 Chinese cities from 2008 to 2019. Employing a time-stratified case-crossover design, we quantified the association between temperature exposure and the risk of infectious diseases specific to each city. The attributable fractions for temperature-related risks were determined by identifying extreme temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile and falling below the 10th percentile of the respective city-specific temperature distributions, indicative of heat and cold effects. A comparative analysis of these attributable fractions between the periods 2008-2010 and 2017-2019 was conducted to evaluate the secular changes of infectious diseases associated with cold and heat. FINDINGS: Our analysi...