Global, regional, and national characteristics of the main causes of increased disease burden due to the covid-19 pandemic: time-series modelling analysis of global burden of disease study 2021

作者：Can Chen, Wenkai Zhou, Yifan Cui, Kexin Cao, Mengsha Chen, Rongrong Qu, Jiani Miao, Jiaxing Qi, Xiaoyue Wu, Jiaxin Chen, Huihui Zhang, Anqi Dai, Qianqian Feng, Yi Yang, Jingtong Zhou, Ning Dong, Shigui Yang · 发表于：BMJ · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1136/bmj-2024-083868 · 被引用次数：22 · 研究领域：COVID-19 and healthcare impacts、COVID-19 and Mental Health、COVID-19 epidemiological studies

OBJECTIVE: To quantify and identify the main causes of increased disease burden due to coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) pandemic. DESIGN: Time-series modelling study. DATA SOURCE: Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Absolute and relative rate differences were calculated, along with their 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), between the observed and expected rates for 174 causes of increases in incidence, prevalence, disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths in 2020-2021. A statistically significant increase was indicated if the 95% CIs of the rate differences were above 0. RESULTS: Globally, the rate of age standardised DALYs increased in absolute difference per 100 000 and relative rate difference by 97.9 (95% CI 46.9 to 148.9) and 12.2% (95% CI 5.8% to 18.5%) for malaria, 83.0 (79.2 to 86.8) and 12.2% (11.7% to 12.8%) for depressive disorders, and 73.8 (72.2 to 75.4) and 14.3% (14.0% to 14.7%) for anxiety disorders, which were prominent and statistically significant, followed by stroke, tuberculosis, and ischaemic heart disease. Additionally, the age standardised incidence and prevalence per 100 000 significantly increased for depressive disorders (618.0 (95% CI 589.3 to 646.8) and 414.2 (394.6 to 433.9)) and anxiety disorders (102.4 (101.3 to 103.6) and 628.1 (614.5 to 641.7)), as well as notable rises in age standardised prevalence for ischaemic heart disease (11.3 (5.8 to 16.7)) and stroke (3.0 (1.1 to 4.8)). Furthermore, age standardise...