Development and validation of a predictive model for sarcopenia risk in older Chinese adults based on key factors

作者：Qianwei Sun, Lei Shen, Huamin Liu, Zhangqun Lou, Qi Kong · 发表于：BMC Geriatrics · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1186/s12877-025-06104-3 · 被引用次数：6 · 研究领域：Nutrition and Health in Aging、Frailty in Older Adults、Cerebral Palsy and Movement Disorders

BACKGROUND: Sarcopenia, characterized by progressive loss of skeletal muscle mass and function, is a growing public health concern, particularly among aging populations in China. However, comprehensive predictive models for sarcopenia risk remain scarce. This study aims to develop and validate an accurate, interpretable predictive model for sarcopenia risk in elderly Chinese adults, identifying independent risk factors and offering insights for targeted interventions. METHODS: This cohort study utilized data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Participants aged 60 years and older, free of sarcopenia at baseline in 2011, were followed through 2013. After excluding individuals with missing data, extreme values, or confounding conditions (e.g., cancer, disabilities), 2,197 participants were included. Sarcopenia was diagnosed according to the 2019 Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia (AWGS) criteria, which assess appendicular skeletal muscle mass, muscle strength, and physical performance. A range of sociodemographic, health, lifestyle, psychological, and biochemical factors were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Over a two-year period, the incidence of sarcopenia was 10.29%, with higher rates observed in women (13.20%) compared to men (7.99%). Independent risk factors included older ...