Shifts in greening trend of afforestation over the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2023

作者：Hongyu Li, Xiaohuang Liu, Jiufen Liu, Yuanyuan Meng, Liyuan Xing, Honghui Zhao, Chao Wang, Ran Wang, Bo Wang · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113756 · 被引用次数：9 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Plant Ecology and Soil Science、Ecology and Conservation Studies

Afforestation is a key strategy for accelerating greenness in drylands, yet planted forests are threatened by decline (i.e., greening-to-browning reversals) due to increased depletion of local water resources. China’s Loess Plateau (CLP) has experienced significant greening following the implementation of a large-scale afforestation program in 1999. However, the trend shifts hidden in overall vegetation greening and their driving factors remain poorly understood. Here, we conducted a running slope difference (RSD) t -test that identified greening trend shift types, including greening with no trend shifts (NS), greening slowing (GS), and greening to browning (GB), based on remote sensing leaf area index (LAI) data series from 2000 to 2023 of planted forests on the CLP. Results showed that the majority (79.2 %) of planted forests sustained the green trend, with 10.4 % each being GS and GB. Subzones with MAP < 400 mm displayed higher browning area percentage and severity, and peak LAI, reversal year, and browning severity were shaped by precipitation-planting year interactions. The constructed PLS-SEM model suggested that the total effects of natural climate, soil properties and human activity on browning percent were 0.36, 0.22, and 0.20, respectively. Warming climate, depleted moisture, high sand content and intensified human activities drove forest browning. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for these greening trend shifts of planted forests when devising ...