Burden of knee osteoarthritis in China and globally: 1990–2045

作者：Mingyang Li, Qixing Xia, Qilong Nie, Ling Ding, Zhen Huang, Zeping Jiang · 发表于：BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1186/s12891-025-08858-8 · 被引用次数：19 · 研究领域：Osteoarthritis Treatment and Mechanisms、Total Knee Arthroplasty Outcomes、Knee injuries and reconstruction techniques

BACKGROUND: Knee osteoarthritis (KOA) is a major global health challenge, with rising prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). This disease increasingly burdens healthcare systems worldwide, particularly as populations age and obesity rates rise. In China, the rapid demographic shift towards an aging population, combined with rising obesity rates, makes KOA a pressing public health issue. China is projected to experience a significant increase in the number of elderly individuals, who are particularly vulnerable to KOA. Additionally, gender disparities, with women being more affected, add further urgency. Addressing KOA in China requires targeted healthcare strategies, considering these unique demographic and lifestyle factors. METHODS: We utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database to assess the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs related to KOA both globally and in China. The decomposition analysis was used to evaluate the contributions of population aging, growth, and epidemiological changes. For prediction, we employed the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model, implemented using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) method, to project future trends from 2022 to 2045. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, both China and globally experienced significant increases in the burden of KOA. In China, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) increased from 4,667.29 (95% UI: 3,996.06-5,359.85) per 100,000 in 1990 to 5,016.52 (9...