Application of the moving epidemic method for influenza surveillance in Kunming

作者：Yudong Gao, Yang Zhou, Siyi Luo, Zhengji Chen, Yujue Wang, Zhiyan Zha, Xiaoxiao Song · 发表于：Frontiers in Public Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3389/fpubh.2025.1601781 · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Influenza Virus Research Studies、Data-Driven Disease Surveillance、Zoonotic diseases and public health

Objective: The Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) has been widely used to assess seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate and subtropical regions. This is the first study to validate the use of MEM in a subtropical plateau environment. Methods: This study applied the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) to establish influenza epidemic thresholds in Kunming, China, using virological surveillance data from 2011-2012 to 2023-2024. Results: The MEM model demonstrated high sensitivity (93%) and specificity (67%), with no detection lag for the 2023-2024 season. Epidemic thresholds (8%), which were notably lower than those in other subtropical regions, may potentially be attributed to Kunming's plateau monsoon climate. Conclusion: This study underscored MEM's adaptability in subtropical plateau settings and provided actionable thresholds for early outbreak response.