Global trends in esophageal cancer: sex and age disparities in health inequalities from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2050

作者：Ying Liu, Erman Wu, Cheng Fang, Meng Zhang, Qian Rou, Zenati Nuertai, Maorong Xu, Shanshan Xu, Minghui Li, Lei Zhang, Aheli Nasiroula · 发表于：Frontiers in Oncology · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3389/fonc.2025.1563570 · 被引用次数：7 · 研究领域：Esophageal Cancer Research and Treatment、Global Cancer Incidence and Screening、Gastroesophageal reflux and treatments

Background: Esophageal cancer remains one of the deadliest cancers globally, highlighting significant health challenges and socioeconomic disparities. This study aims to measure its global burden, assess disparities by sex, age, and region, and evaluate health inequalities, with projections to 2050. The goal is to provide evidence to guide resource allocation and reduce the disease burden. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we analyzed trends in prevalence, incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) across sexes, age groups, and 204 countries and territories. Age-standardized rates (ASR) were calculated to account for population age structures. Trends over time were assessed using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Health inequalities were evaluated using the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Concentration Index (CI). Future burdens were projected using Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) models. Results: From 1990 to 2021, esophageal cancer cases increased: prevalence from 551.62 to 1004.2 thousand, incidence from 354.73 to 576.53 thousand, mortality from 356.26 to 538.6 thousand, and DALYs from 9753.57 to 12999.26 thousand. However, age-standardized rates declined: prevalence from 13.34 to 11.47, incidence from 8.86 to 6.65, mortality from 9.02 to 6.25, and DALYs from 235.32 to 148.56 per 100,000 people. The burden rises sharply after age 40, with males and low-SDI regions experiencing higher burdens. He...