An Individualized Prediction Model for Early-Stage Classic Hodgkin’s Lymphoma

作者：Angie Mae Rodday, Andrew M. Evens, Matthew J. Maurer, Jenica Upshaw, Nicholas Counsell, Sára Rossetti, Cheryl Chang, Cui Zhu, Qingyan Xiang, Raphael Mwangi, Ranjana H. Advani, Marc André, Andrea Gallamini, Annette E. Hay, David Hodgson, Richard T. Hoppe, Martin Hutchings, Peter Johnson, Eric Mou, Stephen Opat, John Raemaekers, Kerry J. Savage, Susan K. Parsons, John Radford · 发表于：NEJM Evidence · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1056/evidoa2500115 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Lymphoma Diagnosis and Treatment、Esophageal Cancer Research and Treatment、CNS Lymphoma Diagnosis and Treatment

BACKGROUND: A predictive model for early-stage classic Hodgkin's lymphoma (cHL) does not exist. Leveraging patient-level data from large clinical trials and registries, we developed and validated a model that we term the Early-Stage cHL International Prognostication Index (E-HIPI) to predict 2-year progression-free survival (PFS). METHODS: We developed the model using the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines in 3000 adults with newly diagnosed early-stage cHL from four international phase III clinical trials conducted from 1994 to 2011. External validation was performed in two cohorts, totaling 2360 treated patients from five international cHL registries (1996 to 2019). Two-year PFS was estimated using a Cox model with pretreatment variables selected using backward elimination. Internal validation corrected for overfitting. External validation assessed discrimination and calibration. The final model was also compared against European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) favorable or unfavorable status. RESULTS: The median age in the development cohort was 31.2 years; 77.4% had stage II disease. The estimated 2-year PFS was 93.7%. Final variables retained in the model were sex and continuous values of maximum tumor diameter (MTD), and levels of hemoglobin and albumin. The optimism-corrected C statistic in the development cohort was 0.63 (95% confidence interval, 0.60 to 0.69). T...