Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6

作者：Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Édouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, T. Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz · 发表于：Earth System Dynamics · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.5194/esd-16-803-2025 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Climate change and permafrost、Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics、Climate variability and models

Abstract. Anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) substantially impacts climate dynamics, primarily through modifications in the surface biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) fluxes, which alter the exchange of energy, water, and carbon with the atmosphere. Despite the established significance of both the BGP and BGC effects, their relative contribution to climate change remains poorly quantified. In this study, we leveraged data from an unprecedented number of Earth system models (ESMs) of the latest generation that contributed to the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP), under the auspices of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our analysis of BGP effects indicates a range of global annual near-surface air temperature changes across ESMs due to historical LUC, from a cooling of −0.23 °C to a warming of 0.14 °C, with a multi-model mean and spread of -0.03±0.10 °C under present-day conditions relative to the pre-industrial era. Notably, the BGP effects indicate warming at high latitudes. Still, there is a discernible cooling pattern between 30° N and 60° N, extending across large landmasses from the Great Plains of North America to the Northeast Plain of Asia. The BGC effect shows substantial land carbon losses, amounting to -127±94 Gt C over the historical period, with decreased vegetation carbon pools driving the losses in nearly all analysed ESMs. Based on the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE), we estimate that L...