Future Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Under CMIP6 Climate Projections

作者：Tao Liu, Yan Liu, Zhenjiang Si, Longfei Wang, Yan Zhao, Jing Wang · 发表于：Atmosphere · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3390/atmos16060691 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Climate variability and models

Droughts caused by runoff are an important environmental issue in the context of global climate change, with profound impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and water resource management. To assess the impact of future climate change on the hydrological response of watersheds, this study combines the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and MODFLOW (MODular groundwater FLOW model) models to predict future changes in runoff and hydrological drought in watersheds using data from two scenarios under 15 CMIP6 climate models. The results show that: (1) The R2 and NSE values of monthly runoff at the Caizuzi station in the Naoli River basin are greater than 0.60 in different periods; (2) the ensemble of climate models after screening can effectively improve the accuracy of runoff simulation and reduce the prediction uncertainty of a single climate model; (3) under different scenarios, the temperature generally increases, the precipitation increases and evapotranspiration increased under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and decreased under the SSP5-8.5 scenario; (4) runoff showed an increasing trend under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and the opposite trend under the SSP5-8.5 scenario; (5) the frequency of winter runoff droughts decreased in the future period, while the frequency of spring and summer droughts increased, with the change trend being more pronounced under the SSP5-8.5 scenario; (6) compared with the baseline period (1965–2014), under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the average annual te...