Construction of an early childhood caries risk prediction model based on the oral microbiome: a nested case‒control study

作者：Teck-Ek Ho, Yiqi Yang, Wenjia Gu, Wen Meng, Xinyu Chen, Sicheng Wu, Edward Chin Man Lo, Fei Li, Haixia Lu · 发表于：BMC Oral Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1186/s12903-025-06147-3 · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Oral microbiology and periodontitis research、Dental Health and Care Utilization、Gut microbiota and health

BACKGROUND: Research on dental caries risk prediction models that integrate socio-demographics, oral health behaviors, and oral microbiota remains insufficient. The present study aimed to compare differences in socio-demographics, oral health behaviors, and oral microbial diversity among preschoolers with different levels of ECC progression and to construct a caries risk prediction model to prevent the occurrence and development of ECC in young children. METHODS: A nested case-control study was conducted in a prospective cohort study to follow up preschoolers from 36 months to 48 months of age. Dental caries status and supragingival plaque data were collected at each follow-up visit, and questionnaire surveys of their mothers were conducted to collect information on the socio-demographic backgrounds and oral health-related behaviors of the preschoolers. High-throughput 16 S rRNA gene sequencing technology was used to observe the oral microbial diversity in children, and an ECC risk prediction model was constructed using the random forest method. RESULTS: There were 18 preschoolers each in the caries-free to caries-free group (H2H), caries-free to decayed group (H2C) and decayed to decayed group (C2C) according to ECC progression. The alpha diversity analysis showed statistically significant differences in the Simpson and Shannon indices between the H2H and H2C groups (P < 0.05), and the beta diversity analysis revealed statistically significant differences between the H2H gro...