Age-period-cohort and bayesian age-period-cohort prediction modeling of hepatitis C incidence and mortality in China

作者：Fei Lin, Zhenzhou Liu, Jianli Zhai, S.H. Yi, Yanyan Li, Yongbin Wang · 发表于：BMC Public Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1186/s12889-025-22847-5 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Hepatitis C virus research、Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management、Hepatitis B Virus Studies

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C remains a significant public health challenge in China, despite global advancements in treatment and prevention. This study aimed to investigate the age, period, and cohort effects on hepatitis C incidence and mortality trends in China and project future trajectories to inform targeted interventions. METHODS: Data on hepatitis C incidence, mortality, and age-standardized rates (ASIR/ASMR) from 1992 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Joinpoint regression analyzed annual percentage change with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Age-period-cohort (APC) model evaluated relative risks (RR) of age, period, and birth cohort effects using Poisson regression. A Bayesian APC (BAPC) model projected trends from 2022 to 2035. RESULTS: From 1992 to 2021, hepatitis C incidence cases declined by 31.54% (1,655,914 to 1,133,610 cases), ASIR declined by 39.00% (152.23 to 92.85 per 100,000, estimated annual percentage change [EAPC] = -1.99%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.32%--1.67%). Mortality counts rose by 28.60% (36,869 to 51,638 deaths), yet ASMR decreased (EAPC=-1.76%, 95%CI: -1.89%--1.63%). Gender disparities persisted: females had higher ASIR (157.73 vs. males: 147.86 per 100,000 in 1992 and 93.23 vs. males: 93.10 per 100,000 in 2021) but lower ASMR (3.96 vs. males: 4.67 per 100,000 in 1992 and 2.28 vs. males: 2.89 per 100,000 in 2021). The APC model analysis revealed elevated risks for pre-1962 birth cohorts (incidence rel...