Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework

作者：Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan Doelman, Louise Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Reyer, G. C. Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze‐Campen, Elke Stehfest, Alexander Popp · 发表于：Earth System Dynamics · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.5194/esd-16-753-2025 · 被引用次数：6 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Remote Sensing in Agriculture、Environmental Changes in China

Abstract. Land use is a key human driver affecting Earth’s biogeochemical cycles, hydrology, and biodiversity. Therefore, projecting future land use is crucial for global change impact analyses. This study compares harmonized land-use and management trends, analyzing uncertainties through a three-factor variance analysis involving socioeconomic–climate scenarios, land-use models, and climate models. The projected patterns are used as human-forcing inputs for the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 3b (ISIMIP3b) and multiple impact modeling teams. We employ two models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) to project future land use and management under three socioeconomic–climate scenarios (SSP1–RCP2.6, SSP3–RCP7.0, and SSP5–RCP8.5), driven by impact data like yields, water demand, and carbon stocks from updated climate projections of five global models, considering CO2 fertilization effects. On the global level, there is strong agreement among land-use models on land-use trends in the SSP1–RCP2.6 scenario (low adaptation and mitigation challenges). However, significant differences exist in management-related variables, such as the area allocated for second-generation bioenergy crops. Uncertainty in land-use variables increases with higher spatial resolution, particularly concerning the locations where cropland and grassland shrinkage could occur under this scenario. In SSP5–RCP8.5 and SSP3–RCP7.0, differences among land-use models in global and regional trends are primarily...