Global, regional, and national burden of mortality and DALYs attributable to high body mass index from 1990 to 2021 with projections to 2036

作者：Feng Xie, Fei Xiong, Bo Yang, Zeng Yan, Yong Shen, Hui Qin, Li Chen, Tiantian Chen, Jigui Chen, Shaihong Zhu, Yan Xu, Xulong Sun · 发表于：BMC Public Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1186/s12889-025-23237-7 · 被引用次数：24 · 研究领域：Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins、Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet、Bariatric Surgery and Outcomes

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of high body mass index (BMI) has been increasing over the past three decades, resulting in significant public health challenges. This study aims to comprehensively analyze global, regional, and national trends in death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high BMI from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: We utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease study to estimate deaths and DALYs linked to high BMI across 204 countries and territories. Temporal trends were analyzed by sex, age group, region, and Socio-demographic index (SDI). Decomposition analyses were conducted to assess the impact of demographic factors on BMI-related disease burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty interval (UI) to quantify statistical uncertainty. The autoregressive integrated moving average model was employed to project future trends to 2036. RESULTS: Globally, BMI-related deaths increased from 1.46 million (95% UI 0.72, 2.29) in 1990 to 3.71 million (95% UI 1.85, 5.66) in 2021. DALYs rose from 48 million (95% UI 21.2, 77.3) to 128.5 million (95% UI 56, 202.4) over the same period. Diabetes and kidney diseases have now overtaken cardiovascular diseases as the leading cause of DALYs, despite cardiovascular diseases remain the major contributor to BMI-related deaths. They accounted for 82.01% of deaths and 73.91% of DALYs. Among the four regions with the highest SDI, three showed a decline in BMI-related deaths and DALYs, except for high-income...