Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II)

作者：Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Christian Otto, Jan Volkholz, Christopher Reyer, Stefanie Heinicke, Colin Jones, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Ryan Heneghan, Derek P. Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Dánnell Quesada‐Chacón, Kerry Emanuel, Chia‐Ying Lee, Suzana J. Camargo, Linn Hamester, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sam S. Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Lisa Novak, Inga Sauer, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego‐Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Simon N. Gosling, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred F. Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado‐Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana I. Ayala, Matthew Forrest, Michel Bechtold, Robert Reinecke, Inge de Graaf, Jed O. Kaplan, Alexander Koch, Matthieu Lengaigne, Rohini Kumar, Maryna Strokal · 发表于：Geoscientific model development · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.5194/gmd-19-4095-2026 · 被引用次数：7 · 研究领域：Environmental Impact and Sustainability、Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy、Climate Change Policy and Economics

Abstract. This paper describes the climate-related forcings (CRFs) provided within the 'b' part of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). While ISIMIP3a comprises historical impact models simulations forced by observational CRF and direct human forcings (DHF), the ISIMIP3b CRFs are based on climate model simulations generated within the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In a first set of experiments (ISIMIP3b, group I) the CMIP6-based CRFs for the historical period are combined with historical observation-based DHF also considered in ISIMIP3a (e.g. land use patterns, water and agricultural management, and fishing efforts). These group I simulations allow for the quantification of impacts of historical climate change by comparison to simulations where the observational DHF are combined with simulated pre-industrial CRFs. In addition, the impacts of observed changes in CRFs can be compared to the impacts of simulated changes in CRFs by comparing the ISIMIP3a simulations to the ISIMIP3b, group I simulations. The second group of experiments (ISIMIP3b, group II) comprises future projections assuming constant observational direct human forcings at 2015 levels to estimate the impact of climate change given today’s direct human influences for the low emission scenario SSP1-2.6, the high and the very high emission scenarios SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5, respectively. The very high emissions scenarios and ...