Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of wildfires in China under the context of climate change and human activities

作者：Guozhuang Zhang, Leyi Zhang, Li Xia, Xiaohua Feng, Yaru Wang, Jingchao Guo, Peizhe Li, Xindong Wei · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113694 · 被引用次数：18 · 研究领域：Fire effects on ecosystems

With the ongoing global warming and frequent droughts, the threat of wildfires is also increasing. For instance, the recent wildfires in Los Angeles, California, have not only destroyed homes, including those of several billionaires and celebrities, but also resulted in multiple fatalities, drawing widespread international attention. Similarly, China, located at the same latitude as the United States but on the other side of the globe, is also facing an escalating wildfire threat. However, the current research on wildfires in China remains insufficient, particularly regarding their spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors. Therefore, this study, based on MODIS satellite data and interpretable machine learning model, systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal variations and driving forces of wildfires in China from 2001 to 2020, revealing the impacts of climate change and human activities on wildfire occurrence. The results show that: (1). Over the past two decades, the overall frequency of wildfires in China has shown an increasing trend followed by a decrease. Spatially, the frequency and intensity of wildfires were significantly higher in the eastern regions compared to the western inland areas. Temporally, wildfires were concentrated mainly in the spring season and during the daytime. Additionally, there was a notable time-lag and cumulative effect in wildfire occurrences. (2). The frequency and intensity of wildfires in China generally exhibited a high degree of consi...