Estimating future climate change impacts on wheat yield and water demand in Xinjiang, Northwest China using the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model

作者：Xuehui Gao, Jian Liu, Yue Wen, Haixia Lin, Yonghui Liang, Mengjie Liu, Zhenpeng Zhou, Jinzhu Zhang, Zhenhua Wang · 发表于：Computers and Electronics in Agriculture · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.compag.2025.110604 · 被引用次数：12 · 研究领域：Climate change impacts on agriculture、Rice Cultivation and Yield Improvement、Climate variability and models

• Climate change is expected to increase wheat grain yield, biomass, and ET c in Xinjiang, Northwest China. • Six GCMs projected an overall increase in growing season temperature and precipitation. • Climate change shortens winter wheat growth period, advancing anthesis and maturity by 1–34 days. • Future irrigation water demand decreases 18.99–27.76% under climate change. Climate change is challenging to maintain and increase crop production in environmentally sensitive regions. The assessment of climate change’s impact on Chinese wheat production is needed for irrigated farming to maintain wheat self-sufficiency and assure future food demand. We assessed future trends in wheat yield, biomass, and crop evapotranspiration (ET c ) in arid northwest China using the calibrated DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model and daily climate data based on projections made by six global climate models under two representative concentration pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) of greenhouse gas emissions. Forecasts indicated a gradual increase in both temperature and precipitation for the region, depicting a discernible shift towards a warmer and wetter climate. Subsequent findings suggested that, in comparison with the baseline period (1991–2020), climate change was anticipated to shorten the winter wheat growing season. The anthesis date was expected to come earlier by an average of 1–20 days under SSP245 and 2–34 days under SSP585. Similarly, the date of physiological maturity under SSP245 and SSP585 was expe...