Impact of natural and socio-economic factors on varicella incidence in children in Shanghai, 2013-2022

作者：Chunmei Duan, Yan Zhang, Qian Zhang, Shuzhi Zhang, Peisong Zhong, Gang Gong, Yefan Zhu, Fei Jie, Jingjing Zhao, Yanling Sun, Yaqing Jin, Yunjie Ren, Yihan Lu, Ye Yao, Hongjie Yu · 发表于：Frontiers in Public Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3389/fpubh.2025.1565717 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Herpesvirus Infections and Treatments、Sperm and Testicular Function、Cytomegalovirus and herpesvirus research

Background: Since varicella is already known to be a globally distributed disease, the focus should be more on its transmissibility or disease burden. The incidence of varicella is affected by natural and socio-economic factors. However, it is unclear how these factors synergetically impact the dynamics of varicella transmission and control. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of varicella cases in children aged 0-17 years from 2013 to 2022 in Jiading District, Shanghai, China. First, we evaluated demographic characteristics, epidemiological trends of varicella. And then, we explored the impact of two-dose varicella vaccine (VarV) program on varicella incidence using interrupted time-series analyses, and assessed the influence of natural and socio-economic factors using principal component analysis and multivariate regression. Spatial analysis was conducted to compare varicella epidemiology. Results: Our analysis includes 6,482 reported varicella cases, with a higher incidence observed among males (58.67%). Regional differences were noted, with the highest incidence in the western region and the lowest in the central region. Before the implementation of the two-dose VarV program, varicella incidence increased by 0.28 cases per 100,000 per month. Following the two-dose VarV program's introduction, the incidence rate decreased by 0.49 cases per 100,000 per month, with an impressive 79.10% reduction in the annual average incidence among children aged 4-6 years. By ana...