Assessing cumulative risks to coastal and marine habitats under management and climate change scenarios: The case of northern Portugal

作者：Jacinto Cunha, Michael Elliott, Sebastián Villasante, Stefano Balbi, Edna Cabecinha, Sandra Ramos · 发表于：Ocean & Coastal Management · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2025.107756 · 被引用次数：7 · 研究领域：Coastal and Marine Management、Sustainability and Climate Change Governance、Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies

Managing the risks associated with human activities and uses in marine and coastal regions is crucial in a time of maritime activity expansion promoted by Blue Growth, especially with the increasing effects of climate change. Effective management of the cumulative risks is essential to safeguard ecosystems from potential further degradation, maintaining their resistance and resilience and ability to provide ecosystem services (ES) and societal goods and benefits (SGB). Here, we adopt a cumulative risk-based approach to assess risk to habitats and ecosystems, considering human activities and two climate-derived pressures for three management narratives, across three IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in the northern marine and coastal region of Portugal. Our findings highlight high ecosystem risk in some marine areas and coastal segments, particularly affecting beaches, aphotic soft and rock bottoms, and estuarine areas. Across the management and climate scenarios, the most important contributors to risk included rising sea surface temperatures, increased coastal exposure to relative sea-level rise (SLR) and storminess, fishing, tourism, artificial areas, and maritime transport. Overall spatial risk patterns varied more with changes in management scenarios than between climate scenarios, with climate pressures having an additive effect on habitat and ecosystem risk. The inclusion of the climate-derived exogenous pressures (i.e. those whose causes emanate from outside the manag...