Climatic drivers of infectious diarrheal disease epidemics in China: An empirical dynamic modeling analysis of 21 million cases

作者：Jiayi Zhou, Yunchong Yao, Lingling Li, Xu Wang, Tingting Dai, Xiaoyan Cai, Lingxi Wang, Yueqin She, Xingxing Zhang, Jinhui Zhang, Haijian Zhou, Haisheng Wu, Pi Guo · 发表于：Journal of Infection · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.jinf.2025.106518 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：COVID-19 epidemiological studies、Climate Change and Health Impacts、Zoonotic diseases and public health

Infectious diarrheal diseases continue to impose a heavy public health burden in China, despite significant advancements in sanitation and economic development. While existing evidence has linked climate factors to the dynamics of these diseases, the heterogeneous climatic conditions and complex nonlinear interactions among meteorological variables give rise to intricate epidemic patterns that complicate the identification of causal drivers underlying the observed spatial and temporal variability in disease incidence. To address this gap, we conducted a nationwide study across 365 city-level regions in China from 2005 to 2022. Based on high-resolution surveillance data and meteorological records, we applied an empirical dynamic modeling framework. We inferred causal links between climatic drivers and six notifiable infectious diarrheal diseases using convergent cross-mapping, and further assessed the dynamic impacts of these drivers through multivariate forecast improvement and scenario exploration across different climatic zones. Our results reveal that, except for cholera, infectious diarrheal diseases are predominantly influenced by temperature, relative humidity, and sunshine hours. Temperature generally promotes the incidence of typhoid fever, bacillary dysentery, and other infectious diarrhea, while the influence of relative humidity and sunshine hours varies with environmental context. This study not only characterizes the epidemiological trends of infectious diarrhea ...