Impact of Climate Variability and Change on the Surface Ozone Response to NO x Emissions Reductions

作者：Emmie Le Roy, Anthony Y. H. Wong, Sebastian D. Eastham, Arlene M. Fiore, Noelle E. Selin · 发表于：Environmental Science & Technology · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1021/acs.est.5c01347 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols、Atmospheric Ozone and Climate、Air Quality and Health Impacts

Climate variability and change introduce a range of air quality outcomes for a given emissions policy. Quantifying this range helps us evaluate the likelihood of meeting air quality targets in an uncertain future climate. Using a global atmospheric chemistry model ensemble, we project how the ozone response to a 10% reduction in anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NO x ) emissions varies across three northern midlatitude source regions under two future climate scenarios. In Eastern North America and West-Central Europe, where ambient ozone is NO x -sensitive in the historical scenario, the magnitude of ozone reductions from reduced NO x is smaller under high warming relative to that under the historical scenario because of the dominant effect of increased soil NO x emissions. In North East Asia, where ambient ozone is NO x -insensitive in some areas in the historical scenario, the magnitude of ozone reductions from reduced NO x increases under high warming due to the dominant effect of enhanced HO x production. In North East Asia, these changes lead to a significant decrease in the frequency of days with ozone disbenefits from NO x reductions under the high-warming scenario relative to the historical scenario, while no statistically significant increase in ozone disbenefits is found for Eastern North America or West-Central Europe.