Invasion Status, Mechanisms, and Future Distribution Prediction of Solidago canadensis in the Trade Port Region: A Case Study of Ningbo Port, China

作者：Xu Luo, Sixiao Shen, Ke Liao, Saiqiang Li, Qinqin Pan, Jiahao Ma, Weiqiang Li, Xiaodong Yang · 发表于：Plants · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3390/plants14101546 · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Forest Insect Ecology and Management、Species Distribution and Climate Change、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies

Trade ports are the first places where alien species invade and the source of their spread to other areas. Controlling invasions in these regions can effectively reduce invasion pressure and disrupt the spread pathways of invasive species, thereby significantly reducing their threat to local ecosystems and biodiversity loss. Based on 595 field survey plots, the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and Species Distribution Model (MaxEnt) were employed to analyze and predict the invasion mechanisms and future possible distribution of Solidago canadensis in the Ningbo Port, China. The results indicate that the invasion of S. canadensis in the Ningbo Port was particularly severe, with a 67.7% occurrence rate of all sampling plots in the field survey, and a risk level classified as Grade 1. Biodiversity (p < 0.001) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (p < 0.01) significantly affect the invasiveness. Highly diverse communities could resist the invasion of alien species, which support Elton’s diversity–invasibility hypothesis. Low temperatures had a restrictive effect on the invasion of S. canadensis. The total suitable area continued to expand under three different climate change scenarios compared to current conditions (increased by 3.73%, 5.67%, and 3.74% by the 2070s). The total potential habitat area of S. canadensis reached its maximum extent (89.77%) under the medium greenhouse gas emission scenario in the 2050s. Meanwhile, the medium suitable area exhibited the ...