Trends in the global, regional, and national burden of cardiovascular diseases attributed to high systolic blood pressure from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2045: a systematic analysis based on GBD 2021 data

作者：Tenglong Hu, Xinyue Yang, Yanyan Du, Yangyu Zhao, Lei Chen, Nian X. Sun, Qiang Sun, Wenyan Liang, Xiqing Wei, Zhiqiang Zhang · 发表于：BMC Cardiovascular Disorders · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1186/s12872-025-04807-4 · 被引用次数：13 · 研究领域：Blood Pressure and Hypertension Studies、Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management、Heart rate and cardiovascular health

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death and disability worldwide, and high systolic blood pressure (HSBP) is considered among its most critical modifiable risk factors. This study analyzed the temporal trends of the global burden of CVD attributed to HSBP from 1990 to 2021, examined its relationships with age, period, and birth cohort, and projected future trends to 2045. METHODS: The study employed a joinpoint regression model to evaluate the temporal trends of CVD burden attributed to HSBP from 1990 to 2021 and used an Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model to analyze the effects of age, period, and cohort. Additionally, a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was applied to project the disease burden trends up to 2045. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the absolute number of deaths and DALYs (disability-adjusted life years) of CVD attributed to HSBP increased significantly. However, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) showed a consistent declining trend. The study highlights significant regional differences, with the disease burden increasing most markedly in regions with a middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and decreasing most significantly in high SDI regions. Additionally, the study revealed gender differences, with the decline in ASMR and ASDR was more pronounced in females, while males exhibited a higher overall disease burden than females. Projections from the BAPC model indicate that from 2022 to ...