Polycrisis patterns: applying system archetypes to crisis interactions

作者：David Collste, Cristina I. Apetrei, Linda Booth Sweeney, Jessica Lynch Boucher, Jenson Chong-Leng Goh, Olivier Hamant, Christoph Mandl, Gillian S. Martin Mehers, Riichiro Oda, Bert J. M. de Vries · 发表于：Global Sustainability · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1017/sus.2025.21 · 被引用次数：6 · 研究领域：Economic, financial, and policy analysis、Complex Systems and Decision Making

Abstract Non-technical summary: The world is facing multiple interconnected crises, from climate change and economic instability to social inequalities and geopolitical tensions. These crises do not occur in isolation; instead, they interact, reinforce each other, and create unexpected ripple effects – forming what is known as a polycrisis. Traditional ways of analysing problems often fail to grasp these interdependencies, making it difficult to find effective responses. We draw on system archetypes to describe and exemplify three polycrisis patterns. These provide a structured way to analyse how multiple crises unfold and interact, as well as insights into how to navigate such complexity. Technical summary: The concept of a polycrisis describes the complex interconnections between global issues, which can lead to unexpected emergent behaviours and the possible convergence of undesirable impacts. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for anticipating compounded effects and for identifying leverage points for effective intervention. We propose that system archetypes – generic structures in system dynamics that capture recurring patterns of behaviour – can serve as a useful analytical tool to study polycrises. Specifically, we reinterpret three key system archetypes in this context: Converging Constraints (based on the Limits to Growth system archetype), Deepening Divides (based on Success to the Successful system archetype), and Crisis Deferral (drawing from the Policy Resis...