A nomogram for predicting the risk of malnutrition in hospitalized older adults: a retrospective study

作者：Qianwen Jiang, Feika Li, Gang Xu, Lina Ma, Xiushi Ni, Qing Wang, Jinhui Wu, Fang Wu · 发表于：BMC Geriatrics · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1186/s12877-025-05990-x · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Nutrition and Health in Aging、Frailty in Older Adults、Child Nutrition and Water Access

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition is highly prevalent but under-recognized in hospitalized older adults, which is closely related to increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes and mortality. It is crucial to identify high-risk individuals at an early stage and manage them promptly. This study aimed to explore the predictive factors and develop a nomogram model for predicting the risk of malnutrition in hospitalized elderly patients. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of data collected from 456 older individuals admitted to geriatric wards from four hospitals in China between August 2020 and December 2020 (136 in the malnutrition group and 320 in the non-malnutrition group). Least Absolute Selection and Shrinkage Operator (LASSO) regression and stepwise multivariate logistic regression were applied to screen predictors and create a nomogram. The predictive performance of the model was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The clinical utility was estimated by decision curve analysis (DCA). Youden's Index was used to identify the optimal cut-point of the nomogram. RESULTS: Four independent predictive factors were utilized to construct the nomogram model after being selected by LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression, namely body mass index (BMI), heart failure, frailty and hemoglobin. C-index of the model was 0.906 (95% CI: 0.872-0.939) and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.906. The optima...