Impact of climate and Aedes albopictus establishment on dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in Europe: a time-to-event analysis

作者：Zia Farooq, Leo Segelmark, Joacim Rocklöv, Kate Lillepold, Maquins Odhiambo Sewe, Olivier Briët, Jan C. Semenza · 发表于：The Lancet Planetary Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/s2542-5196(25)00059-2 · 被引用次数：53 · 研究领域：Mosquito-borne diseases and control、Malaria Research and Control、Viral Infections and Vectors

BACKGROUND: The rapid spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) poses a notable public health threat in Europe due to its ability to transmit tropical diseases such as dengue and chikungunya. We aimed to quantify the underlying drivers facilitating and accelerating Europe's transition from sporadic arbovirus outbreaks to Aedes-borne disease endemicity, focusing on dengue and chikungunya outbreaks. METHODS: We conducted a time-to-event analysis to investigate the period between establishment of Ae albopictus and autochthonous dengue and chikungunya outbreaks across Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) 3 regions in the EU. We incorporated data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, WHO, technical and surveillance reports, and other entomological data sources on regional Ae albopictus establishment and subsequent dengue and chikungunya outbreaks from 1990 (when Ae albopictus was first introduced to an EU country) to 2024. The main outcome was survival time (ie, the time from Ae albopictus establishment to an outbreak of dengue or chikungunya), accounting for land-use types, demographic and socioeconomic factors, imported cases, and climatic variables via univariable and multivariable regression. To address recurrent outbreaks, we applied the Andersen-Gill extension of the Cox proportional hazards model to analyse all events. We further stratified regions into warm and cool groups on the basis of mean summer temperatures above ...