Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot

作者：Gregory Munday, Chris Jones, Norman Julius Steinert, Camilla Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Chris Smith, Chris Huntingford, Rebecca Varney, A. Wiltshire · 发表于：Nature Climate Change · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1038/s41558-025-02327-9 · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Fire effects on ecosystems、Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics、Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations

Abstract With global warming heading for 1.5 °C, understanding the risks of exceeding this threshold is increasingly urgent. Impacts on human and natural systems are expected to increase with further warming and some may be irreversible. Yet impacts under policy-relevant stabilization or overshoot pathways have not been well quantified. Here we report the risks of irreversible impacts on forest ecosystems, such as Amazon forest loss and high-latitude woody encroachment, under three scenarios that explore low levels of exceedance and overshoot beyond 1.5 °C. Long-term forest loss is mitigated by reducing global temperatures below 1.5 °C. The proximity of dieback risk thresholds to the bounds of the Paris Agreement global warming levels underscores the need for urgent action to mitigate climate change—and the risks of irreversible loss of an important ecosystem.