Climate‐Dependency of Impact of Increased Carbon Dioxide on African Monsoon Rainfall: Insights From Model Simulations

作者：Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jiping Liu, Roberta D’Agostino, Yongyun Hu, Hu Yang, Hang Wang, Chao‐Yuan Yang, Gerrit Lohmann · 发表于：Geophysical Research Letters · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1029/2024gl112717 · 被引用次数：1 · 研究领域：Climate variability and models、Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research、Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics

Abstract Previous studies on future scenarios identified two key effects of increasing on the African summer monsoon (ASM): Rising leads to an enhancement in moisture supply, favoring an increase in ASM precipitation (the thermodynamic effect). However, it also results in a weakening in mean atmospheric flow, thus facilitating a dryness across the ASM region (the dynamic effect). Therefore, the ultimate change in ASM precipitation stems from the balance of both the thermodynamic and dynamic effects. This study further examines the impact of rising on ASM rainfall, by taking into account various climate states. Our results suggest that an increase in during warm interglacial periods has a stronger influence from thermodynamic factors than from dynamic factors, resulting in an enhancement in ASM rainfall. In contrast, if increases under cold glacial climate backgrounds, its dynamic impact dominates a reduction of rainfall in most ASM region.